Yesterday the ruling party in Kogi state conducted its primary election and as anticipated the incumbent governor Yahaya Bello who is one of...

Yesterday the ruling party in Kogi state conducted its primary election and as anticipated the incumbent governor Yahaya Bello who is one of the leading contender for the office emerge the winner of the primary elections - with the likes of Orukera and Hassan Baiwa Kicking hardly against the poor processes and manner in which the exercise was conducted.

Gov. Yahaya Bello who is said to be actually contesting his first election in the state has started warming up for the general elections slated for November.

Under this note we shall try to review critically the possibilities of victory for Bello and the likely steps that the opposition could take to ensure that the emerge victorious in the forth coming elections in Kogi state.

The APC is not just the ruling party in Kogi state it is also the ruling party in Nigeria and the party will be pulling all asunder to ensure that it also emerge winner in the Kogi and Baylesa election.

Yahaya Bello on the other hand will also be doing everything politically possible to retain his sit,but how ever it is no longer news that the governor does not have a wide appeal from the citizens of the state,which is as a result of his poor performance in the last four years.

Pundits and critics of the government have accused the governor of not having a single project to his name or having carried out any reasonable development to be reelected come November.

Others have openly and publicly condemn his constant rift with the civil servants and how he has successfully mitigated them over the years.

Those from the second minority,have also come out to accuse the governor of being one sided and not concern about their well being even when his government should have favoured them the most,the likes of Senator Dino Melaye have shared in the same tussle of words and struggle for the recognition of his people and region in the state.


First we must understand that victory in every election comes from the level of acceptance and support base an aspirant has amongst the people and with the look of things the flag bearer of the APC does not have a good support base in the state and will fail if the people really want to unseat him.

It is true that the delegates voted him and gave him a landslide victory over the other aspirants during the primary elections,but it is also interesting to know that the governor through his aid shared 500,000 and a Motorcycle each for the delegates,which we may all agree as a part of the game in politics.

But what about the irregularities during the exercise that included the use of fake soldiers and polices officers to deny entry to other supporters who would have voted and rally round other aspirants can we also call that part of the game,and can the governor repeat the same game during the election.

All this are likely variables that may not settle well for the PDP flag bearer in the forth coming election especially if the oppositions put their house in other and ensure that every loophole is properly watched.

Looking at Kogi central where the governor emerged from,the support base is staggering,meaning getting a 50 - 60% vote there might not likely happen - considering the grounds that the people are not satisfied with the level of development he has brought there and also on the ground that he denied their treasure daughter Natasha Akpoti (who is also contesting) the senatorial seat even when she is the people's favorite in the said election.

The Okun people who makes up the larger number of Kogi west will likely not give the governor a 35% vote because of the constant rift between him and their son senator Dino Melaye (who is also contesting) and considering the well known fact that the governor has intentionally refuse to bring any development to the area because of the lasting rift between him and the senator,so definitely this will be the people's time to pay back.

Coming to Kogi east where they decider of the election really is,the governor May likely not cruise to victory as it seem considering the fact that the easterners are the most victimized and impoverished in the whole of the four years.

Again considering the rate at which the governor has been penetrating the ranks of the area,by patronising the royal fathers,the youths,some of the stakeholders and other notable faces in their polity,the governor is likely to also perform well in that area.


There are over four party that makes up the opposition in Kogi state presently,they include PDP,ADC,SDP and another one that is likely to emerge after the PDP primary elections next week,this one will be made up all the aggrieved aspirants from APC and PDP who feel they were rubbed of during the primaries.

The PDP has all the resources and recognition it needs to win the forth coming election if it agrees to calculate along certain lines.

For instance who are the major contenders in the PDP - they include Dino Melaye,Capt Idris Wada,Adoji Victor, Abubakar Ibrahim and Mohammed Teetes.

How well can this aspirant fly if given the ticket is always the first question the party will consider.

Let us begin with the embattled senator,will the people vote him in the west - yes they will support him,but it will be hard for him to gain any support in the central and even more difficult to gain enough vote in the east where the decider votes are.

these means that Dino does not have a widespread popularity and will not emerge victorious against Yahaya Bello if given the PDP ticket.

He was the formal governor of Kogi state and is more popular than most of the other aspirant in the opposition,but he also has the most tarnished image amongst them too because of the failure that characterises his tenor.

The implication is that APC will concentrate on this past failure and get the people to support them rather than giving their support to a mandate that has been tested and could not deliver.

He is a new breed in the political circle who has gain a lot of popularity from his philanthropy and the constant support her often give to the less privilege in the state,he has also been known for being a people oriented leader who is always concerned about the well being of the people.

Pundits and political analyst have always refer to him as the modern DR STEVEN MAKOJI ACHEMA because of his political idea which has always been "development for all".

He has a wider appeal amongst the youths than all the other aspirant in the opposition and has a lot of support base in the grassroot across all the region and highly respected amongst the stakeholders and elites.

If the PDP decide to become more technical,he is the only aspirant that the party can capitalised on his popularity and good name - this could be a decider for the party in the forth coming election.

He is also one of the aspirant fighting vigorously for the PDPs ticket,by being the son of the former governor Ibrahim Idris is enough popularity,but will the easterners who have been condemning the choice of the son by the father and the elites who have also disagree with the father's effort to build a political dynasty in the state agree to support him?

Aside that the APC has always been a party of propaganda,will the PDP survive the back breaking propagandas that the party will unleash if Abubakar Ibrahim is giving the ticket?

Aside that a lot pundits and critics have come to question his level of experience and how well he knows the people's problems base on the grounds that he has spent all his years in diaspora.

This aspirant is also one of the good aspirant who also commands attention in the state,but lack the resources and financial strength to match up against a money spraying aspirant like Yahaya Bello.

Aside that,he has a poor grassroot recognition especially amongst the illiterate electorates who are not on social media to read his plan for the state and the party won't be able to build on such popularity at a time like this.

But I must add here that in few years from now,the likes of Mohammed Teetes will be a recognised political force in the state because of the beautiful aspiration he is bringing to the table.

This analysis is just a critical review of what is likely to play out in the Kogi election considering the aspirants the PDP and the APC has at their disposal,this means that these calculations are still likely to change depending on the plans and out come of the PDP primary elections.

-Jide Olubumi.
Political analyst.
Lokoja,Kogi state.




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